Uganda Flood Risk MAM 2022

Analysis last updated on: 2022-03-03

This report compiles data on the risk of flood and its potential humanitarian impact. Administrative boundaries as of August 2020.


Flood Risk

The map below depicts flood prone areas for flood events with 10-year return period, according to the European Commission Joint Research Council. Resolution is approx. 1km and colors indicate water depth (in m).

 

Source: EC-JRC

 

Think Hazard, in a collaboration between GFRR and UNMA, produced separate risk maps for river (left) and urban (right) floods. They are shown below.

River                                       Urban

River Urban

Population Density

For each adm2 we list below its population density as last updated in June 2020. Each column can be searched and sorted. Upon requested age groups can be modified and/or further broken down by gender.


Displacement

IDMC reports flood-related displacement events going back to 2008. Their catalog of events is displayed in its entirety below (the table is sorted by Year and Hazard_type). The largest displacement for a single event stands at 150000.

Displacements Due to Floods (Source: IDMC)
Year Hazard_type Event_start Event_name New_displacements
2020 Flood 2020-08-27 Uganda: Floods- Western Region (Bundibugyo)- 27/08/2020 1,000
2020-04-20 Uganda: Flood- Central Region (Nakasongola district)- 20/04/2020 1,000
2020-06-02 Uganda: Overflow of Lake Kwania- Northern Region (Dokolo District)- 02/06/2020 5,000
2020-06-27 Uganda: Flooding of Lake Albert and Kyoga- Western Region (Buliisa, Nakasongola, Amolatar, Kagadi)- 27/06/2020 9,000
2020-05-02 Uganda: Floods- Western Region (Kabale, Isingiro districts)- 02/05/2020 5,000
2020-05-05 Uganda: Floods- Western Region (Kasese and Bundibugyo districts)- 05/05/2020 8,000
2020-07-04 Uganda: Floods- Central Region (Nakasongola District)- 04/07/2020 700
2020-05-01 Uganda: Overflow of Lake Albert- Northern Region (Pakwach, Ntoroko district)- 01/05/2020 3,000
2020-05-01 Uganda: Overflow of Lake Kyoga- Eastern Region (Kaberamaido District)- 01/05/2020 200
Riverine flood 2020-05-07 Uganda: Riverine and lake floods- Eastern Region (Busia district)- 07/05/2020 7,000
2020-11-24 Uganda: Riverine floods- Western Uganda (Kasese)- 24/11/2020 5
2019 Flash flood 2019-05-26 Uganda: Flash flood - Kampala - 26/05/2019 98
Flood 2019-12-02 Uganda: flood - Teso; Bukedi sub-regions - 02/12/2019 55,000
2019-09-01 Uganda: Flood - Western Uganda - 01/09/2019 40,000
2019-06-04 Uganda: Flood - Sironko - 04/06/2019 400
2019-04-23 Uganda; Kenya: Flood - 23/04/2019 900
2019-12-12 Uganda: Flood - Buyende - 12/12/2019 2
2019-07-27 Uganda: Flood - Bundibugyo - 27/07/2019 1,000
2019-06-05 Uganda: Flood - Butaleja - 05/06/2019 600
2019-09-22 Uganda: Flood - Namutumba - 22/09/2019 2,000
2019-07-21 Uganda: Flood - Bundibugyo - 21/07/2019 100
2019-09-01 Uganda: Flood - Eastern Uganda - 01/09/2019 25,000
2019-05-01 Uganda: Flood - Butaleja - 01/05/2019 700
2018 Flash flood 2018-03-14 Uganda: Flood - Mbarara - 14/03/2018 2
Flood 2018-05-01 Uganda: Flood - 20 districts - 01/05/2018 150,000
2018-09-18 Uganda: Flood - Kapelebyong - 18/09/2018 200
2018-10-27 Uganda: Flood - Kasese - 27/10/2018 8,000
2018-05-19 Uganda: Flood - Bulambuli - 19/05/2018 10
2017 2017-08-15 Uganda: Floods - 14 districts - August 90,000
2017-07-28 Uganda: Flood - Kasese - 29/07/2017 2,000
2016 2016-03-01 Rainy season floods 1,000
2015 Riverine flood 2015-11-26 Rwenzori region floods and landslides 600
2014 Flood 2014-08-23 Eastern territories floods 30,000
2014-05-08 Kasese district flood 600
2014-11-06 River Semliki flood 16,000
2014-03-11 Mbale flood 1,000
2013 2013-05-01 Uganda river bank flooding 30,000
2012 2012-01-01 200
2011 2011-01-01 FL-2011-000132-UGA 6,000
2008 2008-11-17 15,000

We summed up displacements per year across Hazard_type, as shown in the bar plot below. The highest number of total displacements due to floods in a calendar year was 158,212 in 2018.

Precipitation Forecast MAM 2022

ICPAC issued its seasonal forecast the months of March through May 2022. On it is the overlay of boundaries for adm1 regions. The colours indicate probability that the 3-month period receives above average rainfall. Probabilities above 40 are considered high and likely. The assumption is that above-average rainfall increases the risk of flooding.

 

Source: ICPAC

Above Average Precipitation Forecast Summary per Adm1
Region Mean Probability Min prob for 80% of area Perc of area with at least 40% prob
Central 39.5 41.7 39.8
Eastern 43.8 46.9 83.4
Northern 42.5 46.1 76.2
Western 40.6 42.6 61.2

The four regions vary in their forecasted likelihood of receiving above average precipitation. We note that the country’s north-east (yellow on the map) is the most likely to experience a particularly wet season. Note that the likelihood is not uniform within a region. Seasonal forecasts do not enable more granular projections (for example, at adm 2 or adm3). The exact location of higher probabilities (that is, yellow pixels in the image) may shift within an adm1 and/or across boundaries between two regions when it comes to actual rainfall.

The summary table report that the Eastern and Northern regions are the most likely to see above average precipitation: they have the highest average probability (ie highest certainty) over the majority of their areas (46.9 and 46.1, respectively.) They also have the largest portions of their area with a probability above 40% and considered “likely” (83.4% and 76.2%, respectively.)

For additional input, we also present UNMA’s seasonal forecast for MAM 2022 below.

Source: UNMA

Source: UNMA

Sources

Administrative boundaries * HDX

Flood risk * EC JRC * Think Hazard - River floods * Think Hazard - Urban flodds

Population * HDX

Displacement * IDMC

Seasonal forecasts * ICPAC * UNMA