Uganda Flood Risk MAM 2022
Analysis last updated on: 2022-03-03
This report compiles data on the risk of flood and its potential humanitarian impact. Administrative boundaries as of August 2020.
Flood Risk
The map below depicts flood prone areas for flood events with 10-year return period, according to the European Commission Joint Research Council. Resolution is approx. 1km and colors indicate water depth (in m).
Source: EC-JRC
Think Hazard, in a collaboration between GFRR and UNMA, produced separate risk maps for river (left) and urban (right) floods. They are shown below.
River Urban
Population Density
For each adm2 we list below its population density as last updated in June 2020. Each column can be searched and sorted. Upon requested age groups can be modified and/or further broken down by gender.
Displacement
IDMC reports flood-related displacement events going back to 2008. Their catalog of events is displayed in its entirety below (the table is sorted by Year and Hazard_type). The largest displacement for a single event stands at 150000.
| Year | Hazard_type | Event_start | Event_name | New_displacements |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | Flood | 2020-08-27 | Uganda: Floods- Western Region (Bundibugyo)- 27/08/2020 | 1,000 |
| 2020-04-20 | Uganda: Flood- Central Region (Nakasongola district)- 20/04/2020 | 1,000 | ||
| 2020-06-02 | Uganda: Overflow of Lake Kwania- Northern Region (Dokolo District)- 02/06/2020 | 5,000 | ||
| 2020-06-27 | Uganda: Flooding of Lake Albert and Kyoga- Western Region (Buliisa, Nakasongola, Amolatar, Kagadi)- 27/06/2020 | 9,000 | ||
| 2020-05-02 | Uganda: Floods- Western Region (Kabale, Isingiro districts)- 02/05/2020 | 5,000 | ||
| 2020-05-05 | Uganda: Floods- Western Region (Kasese and Bundibugyo districts)- 05/05/2020 | 8,000 | ||
| 2020-07-04 | Uganda: Floods- Central Region (Nakasongola District)- 04/07/2020 | 700 | ||
| 2020-05-01 | Uganda: Overflow of Lake Albert- Northern Region (Pakwach, Ntoroko district)- 01/05/2020 | 3,000 | ||
| 2020-05-01 | Uganda: Overflow of Lake Kyoga- Eastern Region (Kaberamaido District)- 01/05/2020 | 200 | ||
| Riverine flood | 2020-05-07 | Uganda: Riverine and lake floods- Eastern Region (Busia district)- 07/05/2020 | 7,000 | |
| 2020-11-24 | Uganda: Riverine floods- Western Uganda (Kasese)- 24/11/2020 | 5 | ||
| 2019 | Flash flood | 2019-05-26 | Uganda: Flash flood - Kampala - 26/05/2019 | 98 |
| Flood | 2019-12-02 | Uganda: flood - Teso; Bukedi sub-regions - 02/12/2019 | 55,000 | |
| 2019-09-01 | Uganda: Flood - Western Uganda - 01/09/2019 | 40,000 | ||
| 2019-06-04 | Uganda: Flood - Sironko - 04/06/2019 | 400 | ||
| 2019-04-23 | Uganda; Kenya: Flood - 23/04/2019 | 900 | ||
| 2019-12-12 | Uganda: Flood - Buyende - 12/12/2019 | 2 | ||
| 2019-07-27 | Uganda: Flood - Bundibugyo - 27/07/2019 | 1,000 | ||
| 2019-06-05 | Uganda: Flood - Butaleja - 05/06/2019 | 600 | ||
| 2019-09-22 | Uganda: Flood - Namutumba - 22/09/2019 | 2,000 | ||
| 2019-07-21 | Uganda: Flood - Bundibugyo - 21/07/2019 | 100 | ||
| 2019-09-01 | Uganda: Flood - Eastern Uganda - 01/09/2019 | 25,000 | ||
| 2019-05-01 | Uganda: Flood - Butaleja - 01/05/2019 | 700 | ||
| 2018 | Flash flood | 2018-03-14 | Uganda: Flood - Mbarara - 14/03/2018 | 2 |
| Flood | 2018-05-01 | Uganda: Flood - 20 districts - 01/05/2018 | 150,000 | |
| 2018-09-18 | Uganda: Flood - Kapelebyong - 18/09/2018 | 200 | ||
| 2018-10-27 | Uganda: Flood - Kasese - 27/10/2018 | 8,000 | ||
| 2018-05-19 | Uganda: Flood - Bulambuli - 19/05/2018 | 10 | ||
| 2017 | 2017-08-15 | Uganda: Floods - 14 districts - August | 90,000 | |
| 2017-07-28 | Uganda: Flood - Kasese - 29/07/2017 | 2,000 | ||
| 2016 | 2016-03-01 | Rainy season floods | 1,000 | |
| 2015 | Riverine flood | 2015-11-26 | Rwenzori region floods and landslides | 600 |
| 2014 | Flood | 2014-08-23 | Eastern territories floods | 30,000 |
| 2014-05-08 | Kasese district flood | 600 | ||
| 2014-11-06 | River Semliki flood | 16,000 | ||
| 2014-03-11 | Mbale flood | 1,000 | ||
| 2013 | 2013-05-01 | Uganda river bank flooding | 30,000 | |
| 2012 | 2012-01-01 | 200 | ||
| 2011 | 2011-01-01 | FL-2011-000132-UGA | 6,000 | |
| 2008 | 2008-11-17 | 15,000 |
We summed up displacements per year across Hazard_type, as shown in the bar plot below. The highest number of total displacements due to floods in a calendar year was 158,212 in 2018.
Precipitation Forecast MAM 2022
ICPAC issued its seasonal forecast the months of March through May 2022. On it is the overlay of boundaries for adm1 regions. The colours indicate probability that the 3-month period receives above average rainfall. Probabilities above 40 are considered high and likely. The assumption is that above-average rainfall increases the risk of flooding.
Source: ICPAC
| Region | Mean Probability | Min prob for 80% of area | Perc of area with at least 40% prob |
|---|---|---|---|
| Central | 39.5 | 41.7 | 39.8 |
| Eastern | 43.8 | 46.9 | 83.4 |
| Northern | 42.5 | 46.1 | 76.2 |
| Western | 40.6 | 42.6 | 61.2 |
The four regions vary in their forecasted likelihood of receiving above average precipitation. We note that the country’s north-east (yellow on the map) is the most likely to experience a particularly wet season. Note that the likelihood is not uniform within a region. Seasonal forecasts do not enable more granular projections (for example, at adm 2 or adm3). The exact location of higher probabilities (that is, yellow pixels in the image) may shift within an adm1 and/or across boundaries between two regions when it comes to actual rainfall.
The summary table report that the Eastern and Northern regions are the most likely to see above average precipitation: they have the highest average probability (ie highest certainty) over the majority of their areas (46.9 and 46.1, respectively.) They also have the largest portions of their area with a probability above 40% and considered “likely” (83.4% and 76.2%, respectively.)
For additional input, we also present UNMA’s seasonal forecast for MAM 2022 below.
Source: UNMA
Sources
Administrative boundaries * HDX
Flood risk * EC JRC * Think Hazard - River floods * Think Hazard - Urban flodds
Population * HDX
Displacement * IDMC